The global economic outlook for 2026 is projected to remain resilient despite being overshadowed by slowing growth and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Most international institutions estimate global growth to range between 2.6% and 3.3%. Key economic drivers and constraints include:
- Technology & AI Investment: The technology sector, particularly AI development, is becoming a key growth driver in advanced economies and several regions in Asia.
- Monetary Policy Normalization: Gradual interest rate cuts by global central banks are expected to begin providing relief for consumption and investment.
- Geopolitical & Trade Risks: Uncertainty surrounding international trade policies, tariffs, and regional conflicts remains a major downside risk.
- Global Inflation: Global price pressures are projected to continue easing to around 3.8% in 2026, declining from previous years.
In the global tin industry segment, 2026 is expected to be in a “Bull Run” phase (a strong upward trend), driven by a supply-demand imbalance/gap characterized by limited supply and surging demand from future technologies. Tin is increasingly regarded as a strategic material crucial for digital transformation and the green energy transition. The projected global market and price conditions in 2026 are as follows:
- Supply Deficit: The market is expected to experience a supply deficit starting in 2026, as refined production growth (~3%) is unable to keep pace with demand growth (~3.5%).
- Price Surge: Tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached a record high in early 2026, approximately USD53,400 per ton, up 75% compared to to the same period in 2025.
- Annual Projection: Research firm BMI (Fitch Solutions) revised the average annual price for 2026 to USD35,000 per ton (from the previous estimate of USD32,000).
These developments are heavily influenced by several dynamics affecting major producers on the supply side of the global tin supply chain, including:
- Indonesia: Experiencing a gradual recovery with an increase in official export quotas to 60,000 tons in 2026, following a period of stricter mining governance.
- Myanmar: Supply from this third-largest producer remains uncertain due to mining permits in the Wa State region only beginning limited operations again.
- China: Continues to dominate global refined tin production (approximately 50% market share), but faces challenges from declining tin ore grades in the Yunnan region.
- Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): Production from the Bisie mine operated by Alphamin Resources shows strong performance, providing some relief to the tight global supply.
Meanwhile, the Demand Driving Sector as the Demand Side influencing business prospects in 2026, includes:
- Electronics Solder: Main consumption of tin (~50%) continues to be dominated by the solder industry for circuit boards.
- AI Infrastructure: The growth of artificial intelligence data centers is driving a surge in semiconductor demand, which directly increases the need for tin in inter-component connections.
- Renewable Energy: The use of tin in solar ribbons for photovoltaic panels is growing rapidly in line with global decarbonization targets.
- Electric Vehicles (EVs): The increasing number of electronic components and power management systems in EVs is becoming a significant long-term demand driver.
At the domestic level, the government’s ongoing mineral downstreaming policy provides substantial opportunities to enhance product value-added and strengthen the industry’s position in the global supply chain. This downstreaming program is also expected to create a multiplier effect on the national economy through industrial sector strengthening and job creation. The Company projects that its business prospects in 2026 will improve compared to the previous year by leveraging several key growth drivers. The downstreaming of tin products remains one of the main priorities, including the development of value-added products as a key pillar of the national economy, in line with Indonesia’s priority to advance the downstreaming of natural resources and minerals.
